Millions of people would lose about a pound or more a year if large taxes were tacked onto regular soda and other sugar-sweetened beverages, a new analysis shows.
A soda tax of 20% or 40% would generate about $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in annual tax revenue. The 40% tax would cost the average household about $28 a year, the research shows.
"If the tax money was used to serve healthier foods in schools and build parks and recreation centers, it could lead to even more weight loss," says lead researcher Eric Finkelstein, a health economist and associate professor of health services at Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School.
The idea of a substantial tax on soda and other sugar-sweetened beverages has been the subject of hot debate in recent years among national, state and local policymakers. Public health advocates have been pushing for a hefty tax as a way to reduce consumption of such products to help people lose weight and become healthier.
Two-thirds of people in the USA are overweight or obese. Excessive weight is linked to an increased risk of heart disease, diabetes, cancer and many other health problems.
Finkelstein and researchers with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and RTI International in Research Triangle Park, N.C., examined national data on the food and beverages people buy. They did statistical analyses to calculate the influence of taxes on tax revenue and weight gain if taxes were applied to sodas, sports/energy drinks and fruit drinks.
The data apply to beverages from stores but not those purchased in restaurants and vending machines.
Findings published in Monday's Archives of Internal Medicine:
*A 20% tax would reduce daily caloric intake by an average of 7 calories. In a year, that would equal a loss of more than half a pound (0.7).
*A 40% tax would reduce intake by an average of 12.5 calories a day and result in a loss of about 1.3 pounds a year.
If everybody switched to water or diet soda, people would lose even more weight, but the data indicate that consumers often switch to other beverages, such as fruit juice and whole milk, that are also high in calories, Finkelstein says.
Most of the weight loss would occur among middle-income people, he says.
The wealthy are unlikely to change their choices, he says, and the lowest-income groups probably would work around the tax by buying generic beverages and waiting for sales.
Kelly Brownell, director of the Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity at Yale University and a leading advocate of the soda tax, says the study "is really positive news" and shows the taxes could have a big influence on public health.
But Chris Gindlesperger, a spokesman for the American Beverage Association, has a different take on the study: "It proves that taxes like this don't work to solve a complex issue like obesity.
"Taxes don't make people healthier. What does make people healthier is making smart and educated decisions about diet and exercise."
The study was paid for by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
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