WASHINGTON -- Americans who buy health insurance through their employer wouldn't see a big difference in premiums if the Senate's health care bill becomes law, a non-partisan analysis released Monday predicts.
For the 70% of Americans who will sign up for health insurance through a large company in 2016, average premiums would remain steady or fall by as much as 3% compared with prices if the legislation doesn't pass, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report said.
The budget agency painted a more mixed picture for the 17% of Americans who buy coverage on their own, separately from work. People eligible for government subsidies would pay nearly 60% less, but those who aren't would pay up to 13% more.
Premiums on those families would rise partly because they would be required to buy more comprehensive policies that would cover a larger share of health care costs, the report said.
The analysis, which is the first by a neutral arbiter to estimate what would happen to insurance costs under President Obama's plan to revamp health care, came on the same day the Senate began formal debate on a 10-year, $848 billion version of the bill.
"Most Americans will see lower premiums as a direct result of reform," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who added that lawmakers will continue to work over the next several weekends to ensure the Senate has time to vote on a health care bill by the end of the year.
Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, zeroed in on families who would wind up paying more under the legislation. "A bill that's being sold as a way to reduce costs," McConnell said, "actually drives them up."
Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for the industry group America's Health Insurance Plans, also focused on the people whose premiums would go up. The insurance industry released a study in October predicting that an earlier draft of the health care legislation would increase an average family's premiums by $1,700 -- though the study considered only some of the provisions in the bill.
"This is the latest report to confirm that the current health care reform proposal fails to bend the health care cost curve and will result in double-digit premium increases for millions of Americans," Zirkelbach said in a statement.
The CBO report was requested by Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., a moderate who has withheld support for the overall legislation. Because Republicans have all opposed the bill, Reid will need all 58 Democrats and two independents to overturn the threat of a filibuster and vote on the measure.
Bayh didn't say whether the report had swayed him to support the legislation. In a statement, he said the "study indicates that for most Americans, the bill will have a modestly positive impact on their premium costs. For the remainder, more will see their costs go down than up."
The report does not take into account a 40% excise tax the legislation would impose on high-priced health policies. The budget office estimates that 19% of workers would be affected by the tax in 2016 but predicts that "most people" would enroll in lower cost plans to avoid the tax.
The Senate legislation, which is similar to a bill narrowly passed by the House Nov. 7, would provide insurance to 31 million people who wouldn't otherwise have it by 2019, according to an earlier CBO report.
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