BOSTON, Nov 9, 2009 (UPI via COMTEX) -- Many education officials base decisions
on when to close schools for flu on politics or fear rather than data, U.S. and
Japanese researchers say.
Epidemiologists John Brownstein and Anne Gatewood Hoen of the Children's
Hospital Boston Informatics Program in collaboration with Asami Sasaki of the
University of Niigata Prefecture used a detailed set of Japanese data to help
guide decision making by schools and government agencies.
Sasaki, Hoen and Brownstein analyzed flu absenteeism data from a Japanese school
district with 54 elementary schools. Tracking four consecutive flu seasons --
2004-2008 -- they asked what pattern of flu absenteeism was best for detecting a
true school outbreak, balanced against the practical need to keep schools open
if possible.
A school outbreak was defined as a daily flu absentee rate of more than 10
percent of students. After comparing more than two dozen possible scenarios for
closing a school, the analysis suggested three optimal scenarios:
-- (1) A single-day influenza-related absentee rate of 5 percent.
-- (2) Absenteeism of 4 percent or more on two consecutive days.
-- (3) Absenteeism of 3 percent or more on three consecutive days.
Scenarios 2 and 3 performed similarly, with the greatest sensitivity and
specificity for predicting a flu outbreak. Both gave better results than the
single-day scenario (1), the study says.
The findings are published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
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Copyright 2009 by United Press International